CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-10-09T06:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-10-09T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41671/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption from near AR 14246 (approx. N25E35), which has decayed to plage. The eruption is best seen as dimming in GOES-P SUVI 195 starting at 2025-10-09T05:16Z. The eruption is also seen as moving/opening field lines off the NE limb from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-12T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41674/1 Model Inputs: 2025-10-09T06:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=416.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-10-09T15:11Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-12T20:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-12T14:00Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-11T10:00Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-11T12:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251009_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 79.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-09T12:42Z
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